38.15-Hedge our bets

Last time, the contestants had to cycle to a historic landmark in Appaloosa Plains to answer questions about the Smole. Only Keith, Abbie and Julie made it in time to answer the questions. In the end, they answered 57 questions correctly, amounting to 57/160 points from the mission, or 686/1040 points in the pot. Compared to early on, Quinn's luck appeared to have run out as she was the next one to be executed. What will happen in her absence? Will the Mole strike harder?

Abbie: "Why did it have to be Quinn? We agreed on the Mole. Now that she's gone, does it mean that we were on the wrong track all along? No, that's impossible. I'm sure we were always correct. It was just that everyone else was on the same suspect as us. Or it was because she was too worried about the off chance we were wrong and purposely answered a few questions wrongly. That must be it. That means from now on, I must go all out on one suspect."

Morgan: "Despite the fact that she has earned the least from our calculations, I don't think Julie is the Mole. The other day she told me she wanted to quit. If she was the Mole, she cannot even be harbouring that thought."

Keith: "But did she quit?"

Morgan: "No. I think I managed to persuade her otherwise."

Keith: "That's great and all, but you may have been baited. She's still here. She could have been pretending."

Morgan: "If so, she's an excellent actress."

Keith: "Who else do you think the Mole could be, if not her?"

Morgan: "Everyone's a suspect, but some more so than others. I doubt it is Ivy too. She's never been where I would want her as the Mole. She is never in the best places to sabotage."

Keith: "Then maybe she just isn't the best Mole."

Morgan: "I think we should just spread first and hedge our bets."

Keith: "But you have got to have a main suspect."

Morgan: "Personally, who do you think it is?"

Keith: "I feel that Abbie really has the greatest chance of being the Mole. We need to forget about what makes a good Mole, or the typecast of a Mole. Neither Julie nor Abbie have Mole-like personalities, but they haven't been doing too well. Abbie has been picking up the slack recently but it's still not enough to reverse the damage she's caused early in the game. Unless it's you."

Morgan: "I'm not the Mole. Can I trust you not to be the Mole?"

Keith: "Definitely."

*

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"Contestants, earlier I asked who the smartest one was. May that contestant please step forward."

Keith: "It's me."

"Keith, you shall be the puzzle solver. The rest of you will be part of the solution. Keith shall remain here while the rest of you will head to the gym."

*

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"Keith, I hope you had a good rest last night."

Keith: "I did, and I'm refreshed."

"Good, because today you will be solving a logic puzzle. Julie, Morgan, Abbie and Ivy will be wearing various attires and carrying various objects in their possession. They will then be standing in a line. Your job is to figure out what attire each of your fellow contestants are wearing, what object they have and in which position they are in the line. You have 15 minutes. Good luck, because if you give the correct solution, you can earn an exemption."

"However, points can only be earned if Keith's solution tallies with yours. 30 points will be earned for every strand that tallies. For example, if Keith thinks that Julie is the first in line, wears her everyday clothes, AND has a ball in her hands, and Julie does indeed fulfil these conditions, 30 points will be earned. Hence, the four of you have a big influence. The clues can be found on the wall behind you. You will have 15 minutes in total to get in position. Good luck."

Morgan: "We should just match the correct solution. Keith is smart. I know he will be able to solve this correctly."

Ivy: "Why should we? What if he doesn't solve it correctly?"

Abbie: "He will! And then he'll get an exemption and we'll get 120 points. It's a win-win situation!"

Morgan: "Actually, Ivy is right. Why should we be handing him an exemption? We can still earn 120 points without giving him the exemption."

Ivy: "That's not what I meant. And good luck trying to predict what he'll answer."

Julie: "Guys, how about we just try to solve first? Now where are those clues?"

The clues are:

1. Of the one who is fourth in line and the one with the ball, one is wearing everyday attire and the other one is Morgan.
2. Morgan is either wearing sleepwear or has a rubber duck in his possession.
3. The one wearing swimwear is holding a camera.
4. The last in line is not carrying a book.
5. Morgan is somewhere behind the one wearing athletic gear.
6. Ivy is third in line. Abbie is not wearing her everyday clothes. 

Keith: "Hmm, I think Ivy will be wearing a bikini. She's got the best figure. Abbie will probably wear her onesie or her workout clothes. Morgan will most likely be the one with the book."

Keith: "Let me make a few annotations."

Keith: "I am aware I committed a heinous amount of logical fallacies. But the point of the mission wasn't to solve the puzzle; it was to solve it as what the others would solve. I have faith in Morgan to give the correct solution, but he's outnumbered over there. This means I have to try and predict what they would do, and most likely they would go for what they want."

Abbie: "Ivy is third in line. Keith surely will follow that."

Morgan: "We need to write this down. Its too hard to try and visualise."

Ivy: "No, it's not that hard, given the time limit."

Morgan: "I would think that 15 minutes is a very long time to solve a puzzle."

Ivy: "But there are four of us. And we need to get ready by 15 minutes. So the actual puzzle solving takes lesser time."

Morgan: "Ivy, don't be like this. What I'm suggesting is for the good of the pot."

Ivy: "Is it really?"

Julie: "I don't think we can depend on them for this mission. Looks like we have to solve it ourselves."

Abbie: "My brain hurts. Quinn would be perfect at this mission. She is smart and I trust her."

Keith: "Morgan is either fourth or has the ball. Knowing him, he won't be last. Hence he must have the ball. Which means he's wearing sleepwear? I dont't think Morgan is comfortable parading around town in boxers."

Keith: "This notebook is really handy. But for some reason it makes my vision blurry. I need to stand further behind a bit."

Ivy: "We are spending too much time on this. Everyone, just pick what you fancy."

Abbie: "No! We can do this. I know we can."

Morgan: "How about we reverse engineer? Everyone starts with a certain answer, then we see if the clues fit."

Julie: "Trial and error?"

Ivy: "This will be wasting too much time. There are too many variables. Are you trying to make us fail?"

Keith: "There's a contradiction here. My solution is wrong. Argh! Screw it. I lost a lot of time."

Keith: "The Mole is definitely with the rest, so there is no way she will want to follow the correct answer anyway. I was just hoping to use it as a starting point."

Julie: "I hate to break it to you but we are running out of time."

Abbie: "But we are not done yet."

Morgan: "Just do whatever you know first. We will decide on the rest later."

Keith: "This will be my final answer."

Julie: "Time to close the curtains."

Abbie: "You forgot to draw the curtains, Ivy."

Ivy: "I have nothing to be afraid of. What will you be wearing and taking, Abbie?"

Morgan: "Why is this dog following me?"

Morgan: "The sacrifices I make...sigh. It better be worth it."

Morgan: "Time to get busy."

"Keith, you said that Morgan is first in line. He is wearing his sleepwear and has a ball. Abbie is second in line, wearing athletic wear and has a duck. Ivy is third, wearing swimwear and has a camera. Lastly, Julie is wearing her everyday outfit and has a book."

Keith: "Correct."

"Let us see whether you are correct."

*

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Keith: "Shiii..."

"The rest have answered as follows:

Julie is first in line, wearing her everyday clothes, and has a book.

Morgan is in his sleepwear and is second in line. He has a ball.

Ivy is third and is wearing swimwear. She has a camera.

Abbie is last in line. She is wearing athletic clothes and has a rubber duck.

Therefore, only 30 points have been earned. The pot now has 716/1160 points."

Abbie: "At least we have some points."

Ivy: "Keith, what the hell were you thinking? Morgan is first? Did you not read the part where Morgan is after someone?"

Keith: "Because I was trying to predict what you guys would do. I bet this was on purpose, so that I wouldn't get an exemption."

Ivy: "Don't find excuses for your inability."

Julie: "What a disaster."

Morgan: "I should quickly go put on some clothes. I don't like being filmed naked."

Keith: "I definitely did not expect Morgan to actually go through with wearing sleepwear and not try to be first or something. Morgan is someone who won't take up a losing deal."

*

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The contestants return home, evidently disappointed.

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A summary.

Keith's answer:

Julie-4th-book-everyday

Morgan-1st-ball-sleepwear

Abbie-2nd-duck-athletic

Ivy-3rd-camera-swimwear

The rest's answer:

Julie-1st-book-everyday

Morgan-2nd-ball-sleepwear

Abbie-4th-duck-athletic

Ivy-3rd-camera-swimwear

Actual solution:

Julie-4th-Duck-Everyday

Morgan-2nd-Ball-Sleepwear

Abbie-1st-Book-Athletic

Ivy-3rd-Camera-Swimwear

1. The one wearing swimwear is holding a camera.
2. Of the one who is fourth in line and the one with the ball, one is wearing everyday attire and the other one is Morgan.
3. Morgan is either wearing sleepwear or has a rubber duck in his possession.
4. Morgan is somewhere behind the one wearing athletic gear.
5. Ivy is third in line.
6. Abbie is not wearing her everyday clothes.
7. The last in line is not carrying a book.